Mogadishu, Somalia – Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud met key opposition figures in Mogadishu on Tuesday in high-stakes talks to break a dangerous political deadlock over electoral reforms that has shaken the fragile Horn of Africa nation.
The “ice-breaker” lunch at the Decale Hotel, inside the heavily fortified Aden Adde International Airport complex, marked the first significant face-to-face engagement in months between the federal government and the opposition coalition, the Somali Future Council.
The bloc includes two of the country’s most powerful regional leaders — Jubaland’s Ahmed Madobe and Puntland’s Said Abdullahi Deni — who have sparred with Mogadishu over Somalia’s political direction.
Villa Somalia, the presidential palace, said the gathering aimed to “demonstrate goodwill” and build confidence ahead of a broader “national consultative” process expected to begin in the capital later this week.
Somalia now faces one of its most critical political tests since it re-established the federal government.
For more than a year, tensions have simmered over the push for universal suffrage and long-disputed constitutional amendments — issues that have frozen cooperation between the centre and federal member states.
‘Opening the door’
Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, cabinet ministers, and a Future Council delegation joined Tuesday’s lunch.
Participants described the mood as cordial but cautious, with both sides trying to lower the temperature after weeks of heated rhetoric in local media.
“We attended a luncheon hosted by the president today. It was simply the opening of the conference,” said Abdullahi Arab, an opposition lawmaker who attended the gathering.
Arab said the meal settled no technical details, but it cleared the way for substantive talks.
He said speakers kept remarks short, focusing on “welcome messages and thanks,” rather than the divisive issues.
“From today onwards, meetings will begin directly,” Arab told reporters.
“Tonight through tomorrow, separate meetings will be held, leading to the main gathering where we will resolve every grievance.”
Officials and political insiders said the lunch also helped ease strains within the opposition camp itself.
They said Deni and Madobe held separate discussions to smooth over internal differences that have, at times, weakened a unified stance against the federal government.
Constitutional crisis
The looming negotiations return Somalia to a question that has repeatedly pushed it to the brink: how to organise elections in a country still battling a jihadist insurgency, coping with humanitarian pressures, and struggling to balance power between Mogadishu and the federal states.
With national elections due in 2026, Somali leaders remain deeply divided over whether to move from the indirect, clan-based “4.5” model to a one-person, one-vote system.
Under the current arrangement, clan elders and delegates select lawmakers, and lawmakers then choose the president.
Mohamud’s administration says direct elections will strengthen legitimacy and accountability. Critics say the push carries political motives, moves too fast in a volatile security environment, and risks further weakening Somalia’s fragile federal settlement.
Tensions spiked after lawmakers in Mogadishu approved constitutional changes in 2024 designed, among other things, to set Somalia on a path toward universal suffrage and to reshape executive powers.
The move triggered an open rupture with Puntland.
Puntland said it would act as an independent administration until Somalis endorsed the changes through a nationwide referendum, fueling fears of fragmentation.
Jubaland’s relationship with Mogadishu has also frayed.
The southern state suspended ties with the federal government in late 2024 after a bitter dispute over its local electoral process and subsequent legal challenges that targeted Madobe’s administration.
Recent turmoil
Tuesday’s outreach came weeks after chaos in Somalia’s parliament showed how combustible the constitutional file remains.
On January 28, lawmakers brawled and shouted during a joint session after the speaker tried to advance proposed amendments.
Opposition MPs warned the changes could unlawfully extend political mandates — a charge authorities have disputed, but one that resonates in a country with a long history of mandate fights.
The confrontation revived memories of the 2021 crisis, when an attempted term extension under the previous administration triggered armed unrest in Mogadishu.
That showdown split security forces along clan lines and forced a political climbdown to avert a wider descent into conflict.
Despite the friction, the government has pushed ahead with pilot steps toward direct voting.
In late December, Mogadishu residents cast ballots in a one-person, one-vote local election — the first such vote in the capital since 1969.
Officials hailed it as a milestone for democratic progress, while opponents criticised it as a unilateral move that lacked broad political consensus.
Security imperative
Beyond the political manoeuvring, Somalia’s leaders face a punishing security environment with little margin for error.
The Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Shabaab militant group continues to mount deadly attacks and has long exploited political divisions in Mogadishu to regroup.
Security analysts warn that the insurgency has regained momentum in parts of central and southern Somalia after government counteroffensives in recent years.
Villa Somalia said the upcoming talks would centre on “unity and the solidarity of the Somali people” as the country confronts the insurgency.
At the same time, recurrent drought has strained communities and governance capacity.
Aid agencies warn that climate shocks and insecurity deepen vulnerability across large swathes of the country, making political stability not only a governance issue but also a humanitarian imperative.
For Mohamud, the immediate challenge is to build enough consensus to set election rules that key regions will accept — while keeping security operations on track and reassuring international partners whose support remains central to Somalia’s state-building.
For the opposition, the talks offer a chance to push for a pause or reset in the constitutional process and to agree on a credible election pathway that avoids a repeat of Somalia’s familiar cycle: delays, brinkmanship, and violence.
Whether Tuesday’s symbolism turns into an agreement will likely hinge on two questions that have dogged Somalia for years: who controls the electoral roadmap, and how Somalia ultimately rewrites its constitution.
