Baidoa, Somalia – Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s swift military ousting of a defiant regional leader has delivered an immediate victory, but analysts warn that the use of force could derail a broader national election agreement.
Federal forces entered Baidoa on March 30, prompting the resignation of South West state president Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed, widely known as Lafta-Gareen.
After resigning, Lafta-Gareen fled to Nairobi, bringing to an end a bitter political standoff that had threatened to plunge the region into violence.
Moving to capitalise on the military success, Mohamud arrived in Baidoa on Friday for talks on the future of South West state, seeking to consolidate federal power as Mogadishu moves to oversee a transition toward direct elections.
In a newly published assessment, International Crisis Group (ICG) senior analyst Omar Mahmood said the military takeover had ended one confrontation but opened a volatile new chapter.
“The federal government’s victory in Baidoa appears to be the first major act in what promises to be a turbulent election cycle,” Mahmood wrote.
Military advance
The intervention followed weeks of rising tensions after Lafta-Gareen defied Mogadishu and hastily organised a snap re-election to secure another term.
In response, Mohamud sent military reinforcements from Buur Hakaba, a town 65 kilometres (40 miles) from Baidoa, where anti-Lafta-Gareen militias had mobilised.
Federal forces battled Al-Shabaab militants along the route before entering Baidoa, where Lafta-Gareen’s local forces largely stood down rather than fight.
The ICG said the regional leader’s political miscalculations had ultimately cleared the way for the bloodless takeover.
“Lafta-Gareen’s ham-fisted attempt to secure another term had also alienated communities in Southwest state who might otherwise have resisted Mogadishu’s troop deployment,” Mahmood noted.
Lafta-Gareen had also relied on Ethiopian troops stationed in Baidoa for more than a decade under the African Union mission for protection.
Instead, Addis Ababa chose to placate the federal government in Mogadishu rather than back its sub-national ally.
‘Inevitably delayed’
Emboldened by the success, Mogadishu is now expected to press ahead with electoral reforms, using South West state as the first testing ground for Mohamud’s push for universal suffrage.
At the heart of the crisis is the federal government’s ambition to move Somalia away from its complex, clan-based indirect voting model and introduce direct voting at district, state, and national levels.
Parliament approved sweeping constitutional changes last month that the government says are essential to establish the new system.
However, the opposition says the government pushed through the amendments without the broad consensus Somalia’s fragile federal model requires.
“Opponents decry the fact that national elections, due by 15 May, are under-prepared and will inevitably be delayed,” the ICG report warned.
The Baidoa crisis marks the collapse of an uneasy political alliance that once underpinned the president’s reform strategy.
When Mohamud was first elected, he relied heavily on state leaders to support his push for constitutional revisions, in return endorsing indefinite delays to state elections.
That pact extended Lafta-Gareen’s term well beyond its original 2022 end date.
But the relationship fractured after Lafta-Gareen grew concerned that Mohamud was quietly backing opposition politicians within South West state in an attempt to reshape it from within, prompting him to openly challenge Mogadishu’s reform agenda.
Negotiation over force
For Mohamud, the federal success in Baidoa removes a major regional obstacle to his agenda and allows Mogadishu to shape events directly in one of Somalia’s most important states.
But political observers warn that the aggressive tactics will deepen mistrust among other regional leaders, who already believe the central government is imposing reforms through military leverage.
“Mogadishu’s decision to deploy armed forces to Southwest does not bode well for the prospects of reaching a wider agreement over the elections,” Mahmood wrote.
The ICG urged the federal government to move away from military pressure and focus instead on political inclusion.
“Rather than resorting to military force, Somalia’s government should use the space provided by its victory to discuss with its critics exactly when and how Somalia’s next round of polls will be held,” the report concluded.
