Riyadh (Adduun.com) — Dalalka Carabta ee Gacanka Khaliijka ma aysan dalban in Mareykanku uu dagaal ku qaado Iiraan, balse in badan oo ka mid ah ayaa haatan ugu baaqaya xukuumadda Washington in aysan howlgalka dhexda uga harin, sida lagu shaaciyey warbixin cusub oo ay daabacday Reuters.
Waxay dalbanayaan in laga hortago in Jamhuuriyadda Islaamiga ah loo reebo awood ay mar kale ku halis geliso halbowlaha shidaalka Khaliijka iyo dhaqaalaha ku tiirsan, sida ay wakaaladda wararka ee Reuters u xaqiijiyeen saddex ilo wareed oo gobolka ah.
Isla mar ahaantaana, xogahan iyo shan diblomaasi oo reer Galbeed iyo Carbeed isugu jira ayaa xaqiijiyay in Washington ay ku cadaadinayso waddamada Khaliijka inay ku soo biiraan dagaalka ay wadaan Mareykanka iyo Israa’iil.
Sida ay sheegeen saddex ka mid ah ilahaas, Madaxweyne Donald Trump ayaa doonaya inuu muujiyo in ololaha milateri uu haysto taageero goboleed, si uu u xoojiyo sharcinimadiisa caalamiga ah iyo taageerada gudaha dalkiisa.
“Waxaa Khaliijka oo dhan ka jirta dareen ballaaran oo ah in Iiraan ay ka gudubtay dhammaan khadadkii casaa ee dal kasta oo Khaliijka ah,” ayuu yiri Cabdicasiis Saqer, oo ah guddoomiyaha Xarunta Cilmi-baarista Khaliijka ee fadhigeedu yahay Sacuudiga, isagoo aad ula socda fikirka xukuumadaha gobolka.
“Markii hore waan is-difaacnay, waana ka soo horjeednay dagaalka,” ayuu raaciyay. “Laakiin markii ay billaabeen inay duqeymo toos ah nala soo beegsadaan, waxay noqdeen cadow. Ma jirto waddo kale oo lagu sifayn karo.”
Iiraan oo weerartay lixda dal ee Khaliijka
Tehran ayaa durba soo bandhigtay awooddeeda gaarista bartilmaameedyada fogfog, iyadoo gantaallo iyo diyaaradaha aan duuliyaha lahayn (drones) ku weerartay garoomada diyaaradaha, dekedaha, xarumaha shidaalka, iyo xarumaha ganacsiga ee lixda dal ee Khaliijka.
Sidoo kale, waxay si weyn u carqaladeysay isku-socodka maraakiibta ee Marinka Hormuz—oo ah halbowlaha ay marto ku dhawaad shan-meelood meel shidaalka adduunka, saldhigna u ah dhaqaalaha Khaliijka.
Weeraradan ayaa xoojiyay cabsida Khaliijka ee ah in haddii Iiraan looga tago hub weyn oo weerar ah ama awood ay hub ku soo saarato, ay taasi dhiirrigelin doonto inay afduubato halbowlaha tamarta ee gobolka mar kasta oo ay xiisadi kacdo.
Xilli dagaalku uu galay toddobaadkii saddexaad, duqeymaha Mareykanka iyo Israa’iilna ay sii xoogeysanayaan, halka Iiraan ay bartilmaameedsanayso saldhigyada Mareykanka iyo goobo rayid ah oo ku yaalla Khaliijka, ayaa sarkaal gobolka ah wuxuu sheegay in dareenka ugu weyn ee madaxda Carbeed uu yahay mid cad: in Trump uu si buuxda u wiiqo awoodda milateri ee Iiraan.
Sida uu xusay sarkaalkan, beddelka arrintaas ayaa ah in lagu noolaado cabsi iyo argagax joogto ah.
Iiraan oo u badan Shiico ayaa inta badan shaki weyn ka qabtay dalalka deriska la ah ee Khaliijka Carabta ee Sunniga ah—kuwaas oo ah xulafada dhow ee Mareykanka, martigeliyana saldhigyo milateri oo Washington ay leedahay.
Sanadihii la soo dhaafay, Iiraan iyo xulafadeeda gobolka ayaa lagu eedeeyay inay weeraro ku qaadeen xarumaha tamarta ee Khaliijka, gaar ahaan weerarkii 2019 ee lagu qaaday xarumaha shidaalka ee Abqaiq iyo Khurais ee Sacuudiga, kaas oo hoos u dhigay wax-soo-saarkii Sacuudiga gariiriyayna suuqyada tamarta.
Madaxda Khaliijka, in aan xilligan waxba la sameynin ayaa ah halista ugu weyn. Weerarada Iiraan ee bishan ma aha oo kaliya in ay carqaladeynayaan qulqulka shidaalka, balse waxay dhaawacayaan muuqaalkii xasilloonida iyo amniga ee waddamada Khaliijku ay si adag u dhisayeen si ay u ballaariyaan ganacsiga iyo dalxiiska, ugayana yareeyaan ku-tiirsanaanta dhoofinta shidaalka.
“Haddii Mareykanku baxo ka hor inta aan shaqada la dhammaystirin, waxaa na looga tagi doonaa inaan keligeen wajahno Iiraan,” ayuu yiri Saqer.
Cabsida laga qabo dagaal ballaaran
Aqalka Cad ayaa dhankiisa sheegay in Mareykanku uu burburinayo awoodda Iiraan ay ugu ridi lahayd ama ugu soo saari lahayd hubkan, Trump-na uu xiriir dhow la leeyahay saaxiibada Bariga Dhexe.
Dalalka Khaliijka, keliya Imaaraadka Carabta ayaa si rasmi ah uga falceliyay xaaladda. Xukuumadda Abu Dhabi ayaa sheegtay in aysan “doonayn inay ku lug yeelato khilaafaad ama xiisad abuur” balse waxay xaqiijisay xaqa ay u leedahay inay qaaddo dhammaan tallaabooyinka lagama maarmaanka ah si ay u ilaaliyaan madax-bannaanidooda, amnigooda, iyo badbaadada dadka deegaanka.
Ilo wareedyo gobolka ah ayaa sheegaya in tallaabo milateri oo uu keligii qaado dal Khaliiji ah ay meesha ka baxsan tahay, maadaama faragelin wadajir ah oo keliya ay ka hortagi karto in dalal gaar ah ay la kulmaan aargoosi.
Intaas waxaa dheer, weli ma jiro is-afgarad buuxa. Lixda xubnood ee Golaha Iskaashiga Khaliijka (GCC) ayaa yeeshay hal kulan oo dhanka fogaan-aragga (Zoom) ah, mana jiro shir madaxeed Carbeed oo la isugu yimid si looga wada hadlo ficil wadajir ah.
Xoghayaha Difaaca Mareykanka Pete Hegseth ayaa toddobaadkii hore sheegay in saaxiibada Khaliijku ay “muujinayaan tallaabooyin horay loo qaaday”, ayna diyaar u yihiin inay “weerar qaadaan”, in kasta oo uusan faahfaahin waxa ay si dhab ah u sameyn karaan.
Si kastaba ha ahaatee, Saqer ayaa xusay in Sacuudi Carabiya—oo ah xafiiltamaha ugu weyn ee Iiraan ee dhanka saameynta gobolka—lagu qasbi karo inay aargoosato haddii Iiraan ay ka gudubto khadadka cas, gaar ahaan haddii ay beegsato xarumaha waaweyn ee shidaalka, warshadaha sifeynta biyaha badda, ama ay sababto khasaare nafeed oo culus.
Wuxuu xusay in Riyaad ay isku dayi doonto inay si taxaddar leh u cabbirto jawaab kasta si looga fogaado xiisad intaas ka ballaaran.
Jahawareerka Istaraatiiji ee Khaliijka
Fawaz Gerges oo ka tirsan Dugsiga Dhaqaalaha ee London (LSE) ayaa tilmaamay in dalalka Carabta ee Khaliijku ay wajahayaan jahawareer istaraatiijiyadeed: isku dheellitirka khatarta degdegga ah ee weerarada Iiraan iyo khatarta aadka u weyn ee ah in lagu jiido dagaal ay hoggaaminayaan Mareykanka iyo Israa’iil.
Wuxuu sheegay in ku biirista ololahaas ay wax aad u yar ku kordhin doonto sarraynta milateri ee Washington, balse ay si weyn u kordhinayso halista ah in Iiraan ay ka aargudato waddamadan. Natiijadu waa is-xakameyn xisaabisan: difaacida madax-bannaanida iyo muujinta khadadka cas iyadoo aan la gelin dagaal aysan dalalka Khaliijku bilaabin, maamulkiisana aysan gacanta ku hayn.
Bernard Haykel, oo ah professor bartay culuumta Bariga Dhow ee Jaamacadda Princeton, ayaa xusay in Iiraan ay si wax-ku-ool ah u go’aaminaysay maraakiibta mari karta Marinka Hormuz, arrintaas oo uusan dalna gobolka ka aqbali karin.
“Maadaama Iiraan ay muujisay inay xiri karto Hormuz, Khaliijku wuxuu wajahayaa khatar asaas ahaan ka duwan kuwii hore,” ayuu yiri Haykel.
Madaxweyne Trump ayaa Axaddii ku baaqay—in kasta oo uusan weli guul weyn ka gaarin—in la sameeyo isbaheysi caalami ah oo dalalka adduunka ah si gacan looga geysto dib-u-furidda marin-biyoodkan.
Haykel ayaa ku dooday in in kasta oo dhaqaalaha caalamku uu ku tiirsan yahay shidaalka iyo gaaska Khaliijka, inta badan wuxuu u qulqulaa dhanka bari sida Shiinaha, Japan, iyo dhaqaaleleyda kale ee Aasiya, taas oo la macno ah inay tahay inay iyaguna qaadaan mas’uuliyadda.
“Shiinuhu wuxuu gacan ka geystay sugidda jidadka badda ee ka baxsan Soomaaliya; waxaana laga yaabaa inuu diyaar u yahay inuu halkan isna soo dhexgalo,” ayuu raaciyay Haykel.
