Washington (Adduun.com)) — Khilaaf sii kordhaya ayaa soo kala dhexgalay dowladdaha Mareykanka iyo Israa’iil kaas oo ku saabsan sida iyo xilliga la soo afjarayo olohooda milateri ee wadajirka ah ee ka dhanka ah Iiraan, xilli sare u kaca qiimaha shidaalka caalamka iyo yoolalka istaraatiijiyadeed ee kala duwan ay tijaabinayaan isbaheysiga labada dal.
Madaxweyne Donald Trump ayaa dhowaan soo jeediyay in dagaalku uu mar dhow dhammaan karo, isagoo sheegay in ololaha milateri ee Mareykanka uu “inta badan” soo gaba-gaboobay. Balse Ra’iisul Wasaaraha Israa’iil Benjamin Netanyahu ayaa sii wada inuu riixo yoolal aad u ballaaran, oo ay ku jirto in gabi ahaanba la rido nidaamka Tehran.
In kasta oo ay maalin kasta wada hadlaan, labada xulafo ayaa raadinaya ujeeddooyin sii kala fogaanaya inta uu socdo ololaha cirka, sida ay xaqiijiyeen saraakiil Mareykan ah, oo la hadlay wargeyska The Wall Street Journal.
Saraakiisha Aqalka Cad ayaa muujiyay walaac ah in Israa’iil ay doonayso in dagaalku sii daba-dheeraado xitaa ka dib marka Mareykanku soo gabagabeeyo hawlgalladiisa duqeynta. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, saraakiisha Israa’iil ayaa ku adkeysanaya in ololahooda uu dhammaan doono marka ay joogsato faragelinta Mareykanka.
Beegsiga tamarta oo xiisad abuuray
Qodobka ugu weyn ee la isku hayo ayaa ah go’aanka Israa’iil ay ku ballaarisay liiska bartilmaameedyadeeda si ay ugu darto warshadaha saliidda ee dakhliga badan soo geliya Iiraan.
Mareykanka ayaa Isniintii uga digay Israa’iil in maamulka Washington uusan “ku faraxsanayn” weerarada lagu qaadayo xarumaha tamarta Iiraan. Washington ayaa si cad uga codsatay Israa’iil inay joojiso duqeymaha ka dhanka ah kaabayaasha tamarta ilaa ay oggolaansho hore ka hesho, sida ay qortay shabakadda Axios.
Xoghayaha Difaaca Pete Hegseth ayaa qiray kala fogaanshahaas intii uu socday shir jaraa’id oo ka dhacay xarunta Pentagon-ka Talaadadii, isagoo garab taagan General Dan Caine, oo ah guddoomiyaha Taliyeyaasha Ciidamada Qalabka Sida.
In kasta oo uu Israa’iil ku tilmaamay saaxiib wanaagsan, Hegseth ayaa xusay “halkii ay ka leeyihiin ujeeddooyin kala duwan, way ku dhaqaaqeen.”
Dhaleeceyntan ayaa waxaa ku raacay Senator Lindsey Graham, oo xulafo dhaw la ah Trump, isagoo ka digay in duqeymaha Israa’iil ay la beegsanayso keydadka shidaalka ee u dhow Tehran ay fogeyn karto taageerada shacabka Iiraan.
Isbeddelka yoolalka Mareykanka
Maamulka Mareykanka ayaa si muuqata hoos ugu dhigay yoolalkiisii uu shaaciyay markii uu dagaalku bilowday. In kasta oo Trump markii hore uu ku baaqay in nidaamka la beddelo, wuxuu u sheegay suxufiyiinta Isniintii in Mareykanku uu durba gaaray yoolalkiisii ugu weynaa ee milateri, isagoo intaas raaciyay inay “aad uga horreeyaan jadwalka.”
Xoghayaha Arrimaha Dibadda Marco Rubio ayaa qeexay ujeeddooyin intaas ka xaddidan, isagoo si gaar ah diiradda u saaray in dib loo dhigo barnaamijyada nukliyeerka iyo gantaallada ballistic-ga ee Iiraan.
Qorsheeyayaasha milateriga Mareykanka ayaa ka digay in awoodda cirka oo keliya aysan waligeed si guul leh xukunka uga tuurin dowlad shisheeye.
Sarkaalka ugu sarreeya siyaasadda Pentagon-ka, Elbridge Colby, ayaa dhawaan is-barbardhig ku sameeyay hababka Mareykanka iyo Israa’iil mar uu la hadlayey Koongareeska.
Colby wuxuu ku tilmaamay duqeymaha Mareykanka ee ka dhanka ah ciidamada badda, diyaaradaha aan duuliyaha lahayn, iyo gantaallada Iiraan inay yihiin “kuwo baaxaddoodu xaddidan tahay oo macquul ah.” Taa beddelkeeda, wuxuu xusay in duqeyntii lala beegsaday ee lagu dilay Hoggaamiyaha Sare ee Iiraan Aayatulaahi Cali Khamenei ay qayb ka ahayd hawlgallo u gaar ah “Israa’iil.”
Afhayeenka Aqalka Cad Karoline Leavitt ayaa carabka ku adkeysay in Washington ay iyadu go’aamiso waqtigeeda bixitaanka.
“Dhammaadka ku lug lahaanshaha Mareykanka ee colaaddan waxaa aakhirka go’aan ka gaari doona Taliyaha Guud ee Ciidamada,” ayay tiri Leavitt, iyadoo raacisay in Trump uu joojin doono marka khatarta nidaamka Iiraan “si buuxda loo burburiyo.”
Israa’iil, dhanka kale, ayaa riixaysa in waqti dheeri ah la siiyo si loo dhammeeyo shaqada. “Hamigeenu waa inaan u suurtagelino shacabka Iiraan inay iska tuuraan heeryada kali-talisnimada,” ayuu yiri Netanyahu Talaadadii. “Shaki kuma jiro in tallaabooyinka aan qaadnay ilaa hadda, aan lafaha uga jebinayno.”
Saameynta dhaqaale iyo sicirka shidaalka
Kala duwanaanshahan ayaa waxaa uga daray khasaaraha dhaqaale ee sii kordhaya. Netanyahu ayaa sanado badan riixayay isbeddel nidaam, isagoo ka faa’iideysanaya dagaalkii 12-ka maalmood ahaa ee sanadkii hore kaas oo si weyn u wiiqay awoodda milateri ee Iiraan.
Laakiin Mareykanka ayaa si sii kordheysa diiradda u saaraya saameynta dhaqaale ee caalamiga ah ee dagaalka iyo ilaalinta saaxiibadiisa gobolka Khaliijka ee qaniga ku ah tamarta si aysan ula kulmin weeraro aargoosi ah.
Go’doominta joogtada ah ee Iiraan ay ku hayso Gacanka Faaris (Persian Gulf) iyo Marinka Hormuz ayaa qiimaha shidaalka adduunka gaarsiisay in ka badan $100 halkii fuusto toddobaadkan, taas oo qaylo-dhaan ku abuurtay Aqalka Cad.
Trump ayaa ku hanjabay inuu qaadi doono tallaabooyin waawayn si loo furo marinkaas muhiimka ah—kaas oo caadi ahaan maamula qiyaastii shan-meelood meel (20%) shidaalka adduunka—isagoo soo jeediyay in Ciidamada Badda Mareykanka ay galbin karaan maraakiibta.
Isagoo uga digaya “Dhimasho, Dab, iyo Carro” haddii Iiraan aysan tanaasulin, hanjabaadaha Trump ayaa muujinaya halista ah in Mareykanka lagu jiidi karo dagaal ka dheer intii la qorsheeyay.
“Trump waxaa laga yaabaa inuu baranayo casharkii ugu da’da weynaa ee khilaafaadka aadanaha: Waa ka sahlan tahay in dagaal la bilaabo intii la soo afjari lahaa,” ayuu yiri Ali Vaez, oo ah agaasimaha mashruuca Iiraan ee International Crisis Group.
Vaez ayaa ka digay in joojinta duqeymaha iyadoo aan la helin waddo diblomaasiyadeed oo looga baxo ay Iiraan ku dhiirigelin karto inay sii waddo go’doominta inta Israa’iil ay dagaalka sii waddo.
Culeyska gudaha oo kala duwan
Labada hoggaamiye ayaa wajahaya xaqiiqooyin gudaha ah iyo tirooyin ra’yi uruurin ah oo aad u kala duwan.
Ra’yi uruurin la sameeyay horraantii bishii Maarso oo ay sameysay Machadka Daraasaadka Amniga Qaranka (INSS) ayaa muujisay in 82% dadka Israa’iil ay taageersan yihiin dagaalka. Netanyahu, oo wajahaya doorashooyin dhammaadka sanadkan, ayaa u badan inuu si weyn ugu tiirsan yahay ololaha milateri si uu kor ugu qaado maqaamkiisa siyaasadeed.
Israa’iil ayaa sidoo kale wajahaysa khatar jiritaan oo degdeg ah: gantaal ballistic ah oo laga soo riday Iiraan ayaa gaari kara dhulka Israa’iil sagaal daqiiqo gudahood.
Taa beddelkeeda, Tehran ma laha awood ay ku beegsato dhul-weynaha Mareykanka. Saadaalin ay bishii May soo saartay Hay’adda Sirdoonka Difaaca Mareykanka (DIA) ayaa lagu qiyaasay in Iiraan aysan awoodi doonin inay dirto 60-ka gantaal ee isaga gudba badaha ee loo baahan yahay ilaa ugu yaraan sanadka 2035-ka.
Mareykanka gudihiisa, taageerada shacabka ee dagaalka ayaa si weyn hoos ugu dhacday, iyadoo ra’yi uruurinnadii ugu dambeeyay ay muujinayaan in dad laga tiro badan yahay oo Mareykan ah ay taageersan yihiin dagaalka.
Isagoo wajahaya dhaleeceyn kaga imanaysa xisbiga Dimoqraadiga iyo xubnaha Jamhuuriga gooni-isu-taagga ah ee ku saabsan ballanqaadkiisii uu uga baxay ee ahaa in la soo afjaro “dagaallada aan dhammaadka lahayn,” kaaliyeyaasha Trump ayaa si gaar ah ugu boorrinaya inuu raadiyo istaraatiijiyad bixitaan ka hor inta aanu qiimaha shidaalka ee sarreeya kicin caro siyaasadeed oo daran.
In kasta oo ay jiraan kala duwanaansho, diblomaasiyadda ayaa weli ah mid firfircoon. Ergeyga gaarka ah Steve Witkoff iyo Jared Kushner, ergeyga Trump ee Iiraan, ayaa si weyn ugu lug lahaa isku dubaridka qaabka loo soo afjarayo dagaalka. Witkoff ayaa la qorsheynayaa inuu toddobaadka dambe u safro Israa’iil si uu isugu dayo inuu is-waafajiyo ololaha milateri ee labada dal.
“Riyada Bibi (Netanyahu) iyo waxaan filayaa riyada Israa’iil ee tobannaan sano waxay ahayd dagaal wadajir ah oo lagu rido Jamhuuriyadda Islaamiga ah,” ayuu yiri Chuck Freilich, oo ahaa ku xigeenkii hore ee lataliyaha amniga qaranka Israa’iil. “Laakiin in lagu tiirsanaado Trump wax kasta waa arrin mar walba shaki ku jiro.”
